Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.508848 1.711578 1.927479 2.174087 2.447519 2.740947 3.079193
2024-12-22 1.238593 1.515039 1.828395 2.208251 2.654514 3.160351 3.775203
2024-12-29 1.080582 1.417608 1.822164 2.339623 2.979564 3.740399 4.708308
2025-01-05 0.881509 1.242174 1.700930 2.319885 3.124746 4.126668 5.457636
2025-01-12 0.736817 1.114164 1.622059 2.343340 3.326806 4.604588 6.370862
2025-01-19 0.609168 0.989227 1.530530 2.339011 3.493212 5.055423 7.297467
2025-01-26 0.530729 0.922162 1.510047 2.429982 3.799419 5.722362 8.575767
2025-02-02 0.458879 0.853217 1.477447 2.499734 4.084139 6.388164 9.916241
2025-02-09 0.390954 0.778639 1.425597 2.533875 4.320476 7.007719 11.248054
2025-02-16 0.335506 0.715205 1.382409 2.576065 4.573727 7.675440 12.708825
2025-02-23 0.275844 0.632164 1.293262 2.530480 4.682040 8.132044 13.890394
2025-03-02 0.220505 0.545394 1.183264 2.433449 4.693667 8.436665 14.860920
2025-03-09 0.185510 0.494554 1.135567 2.448654 4.911254 9.114091 16.516505
2025-03-16 0.152798 0.440674 1.072725 2.427164 5.062950 9.698548 18.074686
2025-03-23 0.134771 0.416893 1.068089 2.519225 5.434109 10.693043 20.402560
2025-03-30 0.108526 0.365009 0.992995 2.457515 5.508362 11.174782 21.894540
2025-04-06 0.090253 0.328840 0.946403 2.448773 5.684834 11.856066 23.790235
2025-04-13 0.073981 0.292982 0.893162 2.417071 5.811201 12.455635 25.586053
2025-04-20 0.065016 0.276641 0.885433 2.487672 6.156694 13.495713 28.257649
2025-04-27 0.056524 0.258941 0.870646 2.539568 6.468182 14.495289 30.923954
2025-05-04 0.048138 0.238444 0.843886 2.558185 6.708884 15.374445 33.422711
2025-05-11 0.041337 0.221160 0.822594 2.587410 6.976557 16.328431 36.128970
2025-05-18 0.033477 0.195982 0.771687 2.530882 7.040003 16.868357 38.060900